Publication Summary

Global temperatures are increasing and the impacts are numerous and wide ranging. Temperatures have been rising at a particularly fast rate in the northeastern U.S., including many densely populated areas like New Jersey. To document environmental changes and better understand the impacts of climate change in this region since the mid-1960s, researchers gathered data on sea and air temperatures, lake ice, and snowfall. They complimented the weather data with observations of spring leaf-out and flowering in local lilac plants. The researchers found clear evidence of climate change, with notable increases in both daytime and nighttime temperatures and earlier spring plant activity. These changes will have numerous economic, social, and ecological impacts. Among other effects, earlier spring onset has the potential to alter plant-pollinator interactions and the length of the pollen and growing seasons.

Insect pests, like emerald ash borers and spongy moths, pose a significant threat to forests in North America. Management of these pests depends on information about which trees are at greatest risk and which treatments are likely to be most effective. Outbreaks of spruce budworm can devastate fir and spruce forests in the northeastern U.S. and Canada, but the risk to other tree species has not been well documented. Researchers in Maine used Nature’s Notebook observations and tree ring data to show that spruce budworms also feed on eastern hemlock trees, which leaf out at the same time as fir and spruce trees. Understanding the risk to eastern hemlock trees is important because the trees play a unique role in eastern forests and are also harvested commercially.

Results from many small-scale studies have shown that warming temperatures are causing plants to leaf-out and flower earlier than they have in the past. However, it has been difficult to know whether these patterns hold true for a wide variety of plant species at a continental scale. To answer this question, researchers used thousands of observations of plants in the eastern U.S. that were submitted to Nature’s Notebook, mainly by volunteers. They found that leaf-out and flowering occurred earlier with warmer temperatures, but the effects varied among species and locations. Invasive species, shrub species, and species at southern latitudes were more sensitive to warming temperatures than other species. These patterns were similar to results from analyses of data collected by professionals and consistent with results from previous scientific studies, demonstrating the value of Nature’s Notebook observations.

As the world becomes increasingly urban, it will become more important to maintain diverse plant communities in and around cities. A diverse plant community provides many benefits to people and wildlife inhabiting urban areas. In many cities, we have incomplete information about plant species and distributions. So, researchers gathered data from published scientific papers, unpublished reports, and observations submitted to community science programs like USA-NPN’s Nature’s Notebook to see whether combining information from all these sources provided a more complete picture of urban plant biodiversity. They compiled more than 171,000 observations of plants in the Chicago, Illinois area and documented more than 2,200 plant species. Community science programs contributed more observations of more plant species in more diverse locations than scientific studies or reports. However, professional scientists documented a significant number of native species with limited distributions that were not observed by community scientists. In all, the study highlighted the value in combining different types of data to better characterize and manage plant communities in urban areas.

As the climate changes, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of extreme weather events like heat waves, droughts, and hurricanes. We know that increases in average temperatures affect the timing of plant and animal activities, but the effects of extreme weather events are largely unknown. To address this knowledge gap, researchers used millions of photos of plants, butterflies, and moths that were submitted to iNaturalist between 2016 and 2022 to evaluate the effects of extreme heat, cold, dry, or wet conditions on the timing of plant flowering and adult insect activity. The results showed that the onset and duration of plant and animal activities were impacted by extreme events and not just changes in average climate conditions. However, the effects of extreme weather were complex, often differing between plants and animals and varying regionally. Results from this study can help us predict how plant and insect populations will respond to extreme weather events, which are likely to occur more often with climate change.

Many trees in the Northern Hemisphere are leafing out earlier as the climate warms. But with leaves emerging earlier in the season, there is an increased risk of damage from a late spring frost. Researchers used experimental and observational data – including thousands of records from Nature’s Notebook – to evaluate the effects of late spring frosts on hundreds of tree species. The results indicated that late spring frosts have both short-term and long-term effects on tree growth and phenology. In the short-term, late spring frosts damage young leaves and limit tree growth that year. But more notably, late spring frost events also limit the amount of resources a tree can store that year, which results in delayed leaf emergence and reduced productivity the next calendar year. These results illustrate that the effects of extreme climate events on plant phenology and productivity may extend months, or years, into the future. The results may also help scientists generate more accurate predictions of how forests will respond to future climate change.

Plants growing in the forest understory, including spring ephemerals, which are short-lived herbaceous plants, are important members of the forest plant community. A team of Appalachian Mountain Club scientists evaluated observations of leaf out and flowering in 11 understory plant and 14 tree species to help address the outstanding question of which plant group is shifting their springtime activity more. Overall, understory plants are advancing the timing of their activity twice as much as trees under warmer conditions. Interestingly, plants of the mid-Atlantic region – comprising the “middle” section of the Appalachian Trail – showed substantially more advancement than plants to the north or the south. And finally: when they looked at differences among the plant groups by region, they only saw evidence of greater advancement among understory plants in the north. The findings of this analysis are good news for the understory plants. Greater advancement in the springtime activity of these plants compared to leaf-out in the overstory canopy means more time for them to grow prior to being shaded out by the larger trees.

Understanding how climate change is affecting species is especially important for threatened or endangered species, which already exhibit perilously low species numbers. A research team led by Jeremy Yoder at California State University, Northridge sought to determine the environmental conditions that Joshua trees must experience to trigger flowering. Using over 10,000 images of Joshua tree contributed to iNaturalist, the team predicted whether and when Joshua trees flowered in years past, back to 1900, and tested the performance of the model in predicting the timing of flowering by comparing the predictions to observations contributed to Nature’s Notebook. They determined that over the past 120+ years, the trees have increased how frequently they flower, as a result of progressively warmer temperatures and more variable rainfall over the period.